UK-based flood science specialist JBA Risk Management has launched a US inland flood model based on its market-leading high-resolution 5-metre maps. The move is in response to growing demand from the reinsurance and risk management sectors for insight into increasing flood risk.
The launch comes as JBA’s data reveals that almost one in three US properties - 38.6 million buildings - are at risk of flood. The specialist’s analysis also suggests the US government significantly underestimates the threat from flood, with over three-quarters of properties at fluvial risk (78%) falling outside of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) official high-risk flood zones. This potentially undermines the effectiveness of the country’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
JBA’s new US Inland Flood Model, underpinned by its industry-leading 5-metre resolution flood maps, covers all 48 lower US states. Importantly, the maps are fully hydro-dynamically modelled, ensuring the most realistic representation of flood inundation possible. This high level of detail enables insurance and risk professionals to better understand and analyse flood risk, supporting future planning, flood preparedness, and resilience strategies.
The US model also integrates with HurLoss® - a market-leading hurricane wind and surge model - developed in collaboration with Applied Research Associates’ (ARA) natural hazard risk assessment and consulting division. The move enables users of both models to access a single, coherent, and comprehensive multi-peril view of loss.
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The collaboration recognises that combined hurricane and inland flooding is already driving significant losses in the US market. When the two events coincide, unexpectedly large losses can result from the compound effects of wind, storm surge, extreme rainfall, and flooding. Last autumn, for example, Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic inland flooding, extreme winds, deadly storm surge, and numerous tornadoes that devastated large parts of the southeastern US and southern Appalachians, causing at least 176 direct fatalities. It was quickly followed by Milton, which then caused major damage in the Sarasota and Tampa Bay areas.
JBA’s US Inland Flood Model outputs have been validated using data from the NFIP, administered by FEMA in cooperation with US communities, insurers, lenders, and property owners. The model results have also been shared with select broking and insurer partners, who provided positive feedback and endorsed the model’s performance.
The model is easily accessible, based on the open-source OASIS loss-modelling framework, and available via Verisk’s Model Exchange Platform. It is also fully customisable, enabling users to fine tune their view of risk by modifying, or if relevant, replacing model components to reflect their own specific risk criteria.
Matt Reid, Managing Director, JBA Risk Management Inc (pictured below), commented:
“Flood impacts every US state and is driving significant attritional and catastrophic losses. Our 5-metre resolution flood maps underpin new models that now provide insurers and reinsurers with the ability to fully assess and understand their potential losses from inland flood at an unprecedented level of detail.”
[Main image, flooded property in US, credit: Bilanol / shutterstock.com]