A recent study by Aviva has been a major talking point through the sector, highlighting a troubling trend in new-build developments.
The report’s headline finding - that one in nine new homes is being constructed in flood risk zones - has sparked intense debate over where and how we build.
We asked Aviva to talk us through the research, and invited industry peers to share their perspectives on what this means for flood management.
Calls for strengthening of planning rules as study finds one in nine new homes are built on flood risk areas (1).
By Aviva
Actions need to be taken to protect against flooding, as a new study by Aviva reveals risks being faced by new properties.
This winter, we’ve experienced prolonged periods of rainfall, bringing localised flooding to some areas of the UK and uncertainty for others. For some homeowners, flooding is sadly a reality, and it is a case of when, not if, a property will flood.
Despite these risks, Aviva’s study shows a worrying upward trend of new homes being built in flood areas. In England today, one in nine (11%) new homes built between 2022-20241 is already at medium or high risk of flooding. This is worrying, not only because flooding remains one of the most traumatic climate risks facing households, but because the trend is likely to worsen. Even as the impacts of extreme weather intensify, we are building more homes in flood areas and, crucially, doing so without the protections that Flood Re can bring to help make insurance more accessible and affordable.
The new analysis from Aviva, which identifies new homes address data combined with the Environment Agency’s latest assessment of flood risk (1), shows that of the 396,602 new homes built between 2022 and 2024, 43,937 - 11% - are in areas that already face medium or high flood risk from either river, coastal or surface water flooding. And that number is expected to rise as extreme weather patterns shift. By 2050, one in seven of these newly built homes is likely to face flood risk. Almost a third (30%) of all new homes built in 2024 alone will be at some risk of flooding within the next 25 years.
At-risk constituencies
The study also showed that the risks are not the same across England, with some of the more densely populated areas experiencing greater problems. Nearly a third of the constituencies with the highest number of at-risk new homes are found in Greater London and Essex. Other areas, including Lincolnshire and the West of England, also include higher numbers of new homes at risk from flooding. For these homes, flood protection and resilience will be even more critical to prevent the trauma and disruption that floods can bring.
Building new homes is welcomed and is crucial for UK growth. But that growth must not come at the cost of bringing greater uncertainty from climate risks. Aviva itself, as a long-term investor in the UK, has already committed £25 billion (2), including into UK social infrastructure over the next decade.
Growth needs to be sustainable, and that includes building new homes that are built in the right places and with resilience in mind. They are not mutually exclusive goals.
Flooding already costs the UK economy around £6 billion annually (3) . That figure is likely to rise unless we protect against the impacts of a changing climate.
Additionally, homes built since 2009 are not eligible for Flood Re, which was set up in 2016 to improve the affordability and accessibility of flood insurance to high-risk homes. The scheme was set up to exclude homes built after 2009 to help prevent more homes from being put at risk. Yet, as Aviva’s UK & Ireland General Insurance CEO Jason Storah points out, “Sadly, as the study shows, this simply hasn’t happened.”
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Future projections
The projections for 2050 suggest that many more homes could be at risk in future. Almost a third (30%)(1) of new homes built in the last three years will be at some level of flood risk by mid-century—more than the projected exposure for existing homes.
The Environment Agency predicts that the number of homes at risk from flooding is set to increase by over a quarter (27%), from 6.3 million to 8 million (4). Surface water flooding is likely to rise, including a projected 66% increase in the number of properties at risk. This is concerning, particularly since surface water flooding is harder to predict and protect against. That is why resilience will become crucial to help minimise the damage that these floods could bring.
Aviva’s Building Future Communities report, published last autumn, shows that every constituency in Great Britain will see increased flood risk in the coming decades, whether from river, coastal or surface water flooding (5). In England alone, more than two-thirds (69%) of constituencies will experience at least a 25% rise in the number of homes facing flood risk by 2050.
Property Flood Resilience (PFR) measures are likely to play an important role in mitigating damage in future. A package of “no regrets” PFR measures, such as raised electrics, water-resistant flooring, or non-return valves, can cost as little as £1,000, but they can reduce damage and, importantly, minimise the impact on homeowners caused by flooding.
Despite the rising risks, it is not too late to act. Collective action is already being taken to help protect homes from flooding, but vital steps need to be taken now. Aviva is calling on the Government to strengthen rules to help prevent more unprotected homes being built. The insurer believes there should be a more effective presumption against new developments in high-risk flood areas and mandatory property flood resilience (PFR) measures for new homes in at-risk areas. It is also calling on the government to publish its own data on the number of new homes at risk.
Getting ready for the future
Flooding is a critical risk to the UK. Crucially, the development of new homes in flood areas can also increase the risk to existing properties in the area by putting additional pressure on drainage or causing run-off elsewhere.
Building new homes is important to growth, but it is critical that we build the right homes in the right places, with future risk embedded into every planning decision.
As Storah puts it: “Building new homes and locating them in lower-risk areas are not mutually exclusive objectives. We must do both if we are to deliver sustainable economic growth and get ready for the future".
What do industry peers say?
We asked industry professionals for their views - read them in the full article in Issue 11 (March/April 2026) of Flood Industry magazine.
References
(1) The Aviva analysis identifies new homes added to the Ordnance Survey AddressBase dataset each year combined with the Environment Agency’s latest assessment of Flood Risk. Undertaken in December 2025-January 2026. The Aviva analysis used the Environment Agency's latest assessment of Flood Risk (known as NAFRA2) to assess the risk of river, coastal and surface water flooding at a constituency level. In particular, it uses the following Datasets first published on 28 January 2025:
Risk of Flooding from Rivers and Sea
Risk of Flooding from Surface Water [↑]
(2) Where we invest in the UK | aviva.com
(3) Public First | From risk to resilience report PDF
(4) Environment Agency | National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024 | gov.uk
(5) UK’s iconic landmarks at risk from climate change by 2050, according to new report - Aviva plc
[Main image credit: shutterstock.com / Richard Hayman ]